Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

 Announcements  Comments Off on Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group
Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional and amateur traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse programs and risk modeling tools. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, an adaptive, risk management focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010 we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of its role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the types of trading which are the foundations for what most members pursue here, follow this link:

Methodology Framework

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/30/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/30/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 302025
 

After a meeting between President Trump and Democrat leadership on Monday failed to make any progress towards a deal to keep the federal government, market focus is the likely government shutdown tonight starting at 12:01am ET.

A shutdown will trigger Trump threatened mass firings (“we are going to cut a lot of the people that… we’re able to cut on a permanent basis”), airport chaos (TSA agents are forced to work without pay), national parks closures, IRS help desk closure, and a stop to publishing Federal economic data which the Federal Reserve and Wall Street use to assess the state of the US economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) laid out their closure contingency plan.  The BLS will cease operations and their workforce of 2,055 will drop to one full-time employee.  Markets are anxious for this Friday’s September jobs report.  A contingency plan for the Department of Commerce which publishes the quarterly GDP numbers and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index has not been released yet.

The longer the stoppage goes on, the greater the future economic data could be impacted.  Senate deliberations are ongoing, and the Senate has a last-minute vote tentatively scheduled for today.

President Trump announced new tariffs on Monday night, 10% on softwood timber and lumber and a 25% tariff on “certain upholstered wooden products” which will take effect on October 14.  Trump says the furniture-making business in North Carolina has been “completely lost” to China and other countries.

Homebuilders warned that these lumber tariffs could deter investments in new homes and renovations.  Canada will be hit hard by the new tariffs as the largest US wood supplier.  Canada is already subject to 35.2% US tariffs.

Trump also announced he would impose 100% tariffs on foreign films, posting “Our movie making business has been stolen…”

Visa (V) said they will start testing using stablecoins instead of pre-depositing cash in local accounts as a way for businesses to fund international payments.  Businesses are being emboldened to use stable coins after the US passed the Genius Act which set clear rules for stablecoin issuers.  Visa’s move could make cross-border transactions faster and unlock cash businesses would otherwise have locked up in multiple currencies worldwide.

Corporate earnings include Paychex (PAYX) premarket and Nike (NIKE) after the bell.

The economic calendar focus is JOLTS Job Opening and CB Consumer Confidence @ 10:00am ET.  Other data includes HPI and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI @ 9:00am ET, and Chicago PMI @ 9:45am ET.

Fed speakers include Boston’s Susan Collins @ 9:00am ET and Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee @ 1:30pm ET.

Volatility ticked down on Monday and remains moderate.  The ES 5-day average daily range is 55.25 points.

Whale bias is bullish into the US session open on significant overnight large trader volume.

 

 Posted by at 5:43 am

09/29/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/29/2025 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 292025
 

The major US stock indexes finished last week little changed despite new surprise tariffs by President Trump last Thursday.  The AI trade remains alive and well, providing buoyancy to the indexes.  Many analysts are making arguments that AI is nowhere near bubble territory.

Markets have generally been ignoring politics, but that may prove difficult this week.  The US federal government is on a course towards its latest shutdown which is set to take effect at 12:01am ET on Wednesday unless Congress can pass a budget or another “kick the can down the road” continuing resolution.

If the US federal government shuts down, that would affect the release of economic data, including this Friday’s jobs report.  The job numbers will play an important role in the Fed’s next interest rate decision which is only 4 weeks away.

The best hope for avoiding a shut down is for the Senate to pass the House-approved continuing resolution which requires 60 votes.  That would require flipping 7 Democratic senators which is not likely in such a short time frame.  For their support, Democrats are insisting on health-care subsidy extensions and a restoration of health care budget cuts made in Trump’s signature legislation pass earlier this year.

President Trump will meet with the top 4 congressional leaders today to try to avoid a shutdown.  This last-minute meeting is the first on the subject after a scheduled meeting for last week was canceled.

Last week, Trump called for mass layoffs of federal workers rather than furloughs in the event of a shutdown.  The current labor market is in no position to absorb thousands of jobless government workers which would put heavy upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Gold continues to press new all-time highs above $3800 as the US dollar weakens and the potential for a US government shutdown increases.  Silver is reapproaching its 2011 all-time high, driven by market tightness and inflows into metal ETFs.

Corporate earnings premarket include Carnival (CCL) and Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) after the close.

The economic calendar is light with Pending Home Sales @ 10:00am ET.

Fed speakers include Beth Hammack @ 8:00am ET, Alberto Musalem and John Williams in separate engagements, both @ 1:30pm ET.

Volatility remains moderate and steady.  The ES 5-day average daily range has ticked down to 59.75 points.

No whale bias as overnight large trader volume was too light to be significant.

 

 Posted by at 5:08 am