09/19/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 192017
 

The stock market bulls are cautiously optimistic as the 2-day Fed meeting begins today and the announcement is made tomorrow.  Analysts give the Fed 0% chance of raising rates while many expect the Fed to start unwinding it’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  With little geopolitical news, market focus is on corporate happenings and the category 5 hurricane Maria targeting Puerto Rico tomorrow.  Today’s earnings include ADBE, ALOG, AZO, BBBY, and FDX.  Economic data includes building permits, housing starts, and import prices; all @ 8:30am EST.  Volatility has dried up as the market bulls cautiously wait on any new Trump tax plan information.  Volatility to the downside will be most likely be easier than the upside until tomorrow’s Fed announcement.  Size bias is long on light overnight volume into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 7:12 am

09/15/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 152017
 

North Korea fired another missile over Japan yesterday after the UN increased sanctions against the isolated country just days ago.   In London, a train fire added to the bearishness, however as the US open approaches, the ES bulls have clawed their way back to retest yesterday’s settlement.  It’s a busy morning for economic data.  This morning’s key data includes Retail Sales  and Empire State @ 8:30am EST, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am EST.  Upside volatility has dried up as the ES remains pinned under its all-time high.  However it’s Friday and if the ES is going higher, there’s a chance today, but I suspect the bulls will remain constrained until more of Trump’s tax plan is revealed.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:34 am

02/17/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Feb 172017
 

Globex trading turned bearish during the European session on no significant new fundamental information as we head into a 3-day US stock market weekend (Monday is US Presidents Day).  There is no scheduled US economic data for this morning.  The ES is technically overdue for a bearish pullback, but the bears probably won’t get much going unless they can clear the 2331 area.  Volatility should remain similar to yesterday unless the bears get some momentum going.  Volatility may dry up this afternoon as traders start closing shop for the long weekend.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:24 am

10/20/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 202016
 

This morning is about the ECB’s 7:45am EST Minimum Bid Rate announcement and subsequent 8:30am EST ECB President Draghi’s press conference.  Expectations are for the ECB to make no changes; subtle differences from the expectations could move this morning’s markets.  The press conference will most likely overshadow this morning’s 8:30am EST Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims numbers and a slew of corporate earnings reports.  Volatility continues to shrink as traders wait on something that will change their expectations.  No clear Size bias this morning as institutional trading was almost non-existent overnight.

 

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 Posted by at 6:48 am

10/19/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 192016
 

Chinese GDP came in line with expectations but industrial production numbers were weak, casting a bearish sentiment on stocks.  The Saudi oil minister stated that Non-OPEC nations are providing strong signals they’ll cooperate with OPEC to stabilize oil prices.  Corporate earnings are very much in focus with HAL, MS, and USB reporting pre-market.  ES Globex action has been mixed, rotating around it’s 2132 settlement price.  US Housing Starts and Building Permits are on deck for 8:30am EST and Crude Oil Inventories back on it’s normal day and time @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility continues to shrink; traders are waiting on a reason to move the markets.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

dtg-161019-es

 Posted by at 6:53 am

10/18/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 182016
 

UK inflation numbers are up, but no rebound for the GBP despite its tumble over the last few weeks.  Oil is also up on no particular news.  Strength in financial and energy stocks have the ES up overnight while traders switch focus to this morning’s 8:30am EST CPI numbers.  We’re in earnings season and the big name for today is Goldman Sachs who reports pre-market.  Volatility is still a hard read.  Yesterday’s range was a pitiful 13.25 points while overnight the ES is 15.25 points so far.  Until traders find some reason to take the market up or down, the low volatility will most likely continue.  Size bias is long on light volume into the 8:30am EST CPI numbers.

 

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 Posted by at 6:32 am

09/15/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 152016
 

We have a plethora of data reports @ 8:30am EST which include Retail Sales number, PPI numbers, the Philly Fed, and Unemployment Claims.  That’s enough new information to either start a market directional trend or if mixed, cause indecision and net out as a neutral.  The numbers will be viewed against the likelihood of the FOMC increasing rates next week or this year or next year.  Volatility remains high and is expected to remain so today.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

dtg-160915-es

 Posted by at 6:38 am