05/25/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 252017
 

Oil prices are down overnight as OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to extend production levels for 9 more months, however they did not agree to cut production further.  In lighter than normal European trading due to the Ascension Day holiday, the oil move has put a damper on the bullish reaction to yesterday’s Fed minutes which continued into the Asian sessions and took the ES to a new all-time high.  The minutes showed that the pace of additional rate hikes is up for debate.  Today’s economic data focus is Claims and Goods Trade @ 8:30am EST.  Fed Governor Brainard speaks @ 10:00am EST.  Now that the ES is at new highs, the bulls may take a shot at seeing how far they can run.  Best guess is that after an initial move up, the bulls will fall into grinding mode…  Size bias is up into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:43 am

05/24/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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May 242017
 

Moody’s lowered the credit rating for China one notch for the first time since 1989 over concerns of slowing growth and rising debt.  However, the move was anticipated as Fitch had already made the same move and the markets kind of shrugged off the news.  The U.K. has raised their threat level from severe to the highest level critical as links after the Manchester concert bombing.  On the economic calendar, we have HPI @ 9:00am EST, Existing Home Sales @ 10:00am EST, and Crude Inventories @ 10:30am EST.  However, today’s focus will be on monetary policy as ECB’s Draghi speaks @ 8:00am EST and FOMC Meeting Minutes are released @ 2:00pm EST.  Volatility continues to be muted to the upside until the bulls find a reason to explore new all-time highs.  No Size bias as overnight volume was mixed but starting to turn bearish.

 

 Posted by at 7:08 am

02/17/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Feb 172017
 

Globex trading turned bearish during the European session on no significant new fundamental information as we head into a 3-day US stock market weekend (Monday is US Presidents Day).  There is no scheduled US economic data for this morning.  The ES is technically overdue for a bearish pullback, but the bears probably won’t get much going unless they can clear the 2331 area.  Volatility should remain similar to yesterday unless the bears get some momentum going.  Volatility may dry up this afternoon as traders start closing shop for the long weekend.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:24 am

10/20/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 202016
 

This morning is about the ECB’s 7:45am EST Minimum Bid Rate announcement and subsequent 8:30am EST ECB President Draghi’s press conference.  Expectations are for the ECB to make no changes; subtle differences from the expectations could move this morning’s markets.  The press conference will most likely overshadow this morning’s 8:30am EST Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims numbers and a slew of corporate earnings reports.  Volatility continues to shrink as traders wait on something that will change their expectations.  No clear Size bias this morning as institutional trading was almost non-existent overnight.

 

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 Posted by at 6:48 am

10/19/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 192016
 

Chinese GDP came in line with expectations but industrial production numbers were weak, casting a bearish sentiment on stocks.  The Saudi oil minister stated that Non-OPEC nations are providing strong signals they’ll cooperate with OPEC to stabilize oil prices.  Corporate earnings are very much in focus with HAL, MS, and USB reporting pre-market.  ES Globex action has been mixed, rotating around it’s 2132 settlement price.  US Housing Starts and Building Permits are on deck for 8:30am EST and Crude Oil Inventories back on it’s normal day and time @ 10:30am EST.  Volatility continues to shrink; traders are waiting on a reason to move the markets.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

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 Posted by at 6:53 am

10/18/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Oct 182016
 

UK inflation numbers are up, but no rebound for the GBP despite its tumble over the last few weeks.  Oil is also up on no particular news.  Strength in financial and energy stocks have the ES up overnight while traders switch focus to this morning’s 8:30am EST CPI numbers.  We’re in earnings season and the big name for today is Goldman Sachs who reports pre-market.  Volatility is still a hard read.  Yesterday’s range was a pitiful 13.25 points while overnight the ES is 15.25 points so far.  Until traders find some reason to take the market up or down, the low volatility will most likely continue.  Size bias is long on light volume into the 8:30am EST CPI numbers.

 

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 Posted by at 6:32 am

09/15/2016 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Sep 152016
 

We have a plethora of data reports @ 8:30am EST which include Retail Sales number, PPI numbers, the Philly Fed, and Unemployment Claims.  That’s enough new information to either start a market directional trend or if mixed, cause indecision and net out as a neutral.  The numbers will be viewed against the likelihood of the FOMC increasing rates next week or this year or next year.  Volatility remains high and is expected to remain so today.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST numbers on light volume.

 

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 Posted by at 6:38 am