May 242010
 

The big word of the day is uncertainty which is certainly reflected in the overnight volume. Overall trading is moderate but institutions are standing aside for the time being. Big traders are also net buying while the broad market is slightly sell oriented for the session. We really don’t have any new answers since Friday’s classic see-saw options expiration manipulation. A fake out of all time with LOTS of money made by program traders. The Euro has continued to sell off overnight but has flattened this morning as have the 10s and as I write the ES is in the midst of a significant rally. The levels are pretty clear today but I don’t think we will see any break out of the edges of our current range until we either lose all faith in Europe or we decide they can handle things themselves. We should see a pop in the home sales, but I suspect anything other than a huge surprise is priced in. All I can say is expect more volatility. The VIX stayed in the 40s right into the close on Friday and until we sort out we don’t expect much change. Don’t be too quick to trade out of the range as more fake out activity is not only possible, but likely. I will say that I think the 61-61 handle will hold as interim support and is my favorite long bounce spot of the range. The high side is much more tricky unless the OH/YH holds. I fear that it will be so wild there though that it may not be worth trading except for a strong institutional shorting confirmation. Ordinarily I would just wait for the next rung up but then we are in the middle of tons of skipped over auctions in the selling tail from last week and it is too tough to call any line in the sand there. Be prepared to scalp short on the high side on the volatility and forget trying to call a turn unless you really have everything working for you with correlated markets, the internals and the order flow.

 Posted by at 9:11 am

  2 Responses to “5/24/2010 Pre-Market Commentary”

  1. Like the new format funny enough I created a key market level with a comments section as well

  2. love the new sheet layout, thank you!

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