May 102010
 

Pretty quick days today for us. Of course when you only trade once a day per account it makes it easier. As I said in the pre-market commentary I traded the first push into 51/52 before the open which I felt strongly would hold for at least a rotation which it did. Sometimes the move happens pre-market and thankfully volume was strong so I could take advantage of it. After the open we had a nice Big Lots setup as we call it (will explain in Tuesday’s webinar) which NJ traded. Short at 59.50 flat at 58.00. I had the OH set for just a scalp but it didn’t set up right for me. I felt that it was too close to all that acceptance in the 60s which would provide a magnet to go with the rejection orginally, but when the failure was more pronounced I agreed with NJ that with the institutional confirmation that was the right trade after all. The VIX gapped right down and is now flatlined. Too tough to call from here. I would advise against selling 62 again and I would probably advise against buying 51/52 again as well for those hanging around. If I were to keep trading I might scalp 62, fade 64 and/or 68/69 on the long side. On the short side, selling 50 into 47 or even on to 44 might come in to play and I would surely buy 42 if we got there…

UPDATE: Short 50.50 flat at 47. Texbook from the pre-market sheet. You just knew you would get that flush on a subsequent test of 51/52. That is why I chose to only fade it pre-market – I didn’t feel it would hold another move. The Eurp is selling off hard and the bonds are bidding up and have been all morning. I wouldn’t want to be long for any kind of directional or momentum trade right now…

 Posted by at 10:21 am

  4 Responses to “5/10/2010 Post Trading Analysis”

  1. What struck me today was the pronounced difference in volatility from Friday. With the lower volatility, the “trap” trades that were numerous on Friday are scarce today.

    Friday I was able to trade just off of the order flow at different price levels. The traps setup cleanly and there was good movement once the reversal panic happened. Today, it’s back to only trading at strong levels like the ones you highlight and expecting smaller price movement.

    I’ve only recently started to better match the number of trades I make with market opportunity. I’ve overtraded a LOT in the past, trying to make something happen, and not just listening to the market. The fact that you are successful just taking one trade a day has also been eye-opening.

    Looking forward to learning about “Big Lots” tomorrow.

  2. UPDATE: Short 50.50 flat at 47. Texbook from the pre-market sheet. You just knew you would get that flush on a subsequent test of 51/52. That is why I chose to only fade it pre-market – I didn’t feel it would hold another move. The Eurp is selling off hard and the bonds are bidding up and have been all morning. I wouldn’t want to be long for any kind of directional or momentum trade right now…

  3. Enjoyed your webinar and the way you look at your markets I have created a spreadsheet like yours and aim to use the skills you guys teach. Keep up the good work

    • Glad to help. You may want to check out tomorrow’s last of the three webinar series sponsored by MarketDelta if you have any interest in learning to read orderflow.

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