Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders founded by principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse risk modeling tools suited to larger, longer time horizon portfolios. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary thoughts during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that ongoing research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, a dynamically adaptive, risk focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010, we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas for all of us, making our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what most members are focused on here, follow this link:

Methodology Introduction

 Posted by at 11:24 am

09/19/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/19/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 192017
 

The stock market bulls are cautiously optimistic as the 2-day Fed meeting begins today and the announcement is made tomorrow.  Analysts give the Fed 0% chance of raising rates while many expect the Fed to start unwinding it’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.  With little geopolitical news, market focus is on corporate happenings and the category 5 hurricane Maria targeting Puerto Rico tomorrow.  Today’s earnings include ADBE, ALOG, AZO, BBBY, and FDX.  Economic data includes building permits, housing starts, and import prices; all @ 8:30am EST.  Volatility has dried up as the market bulls cautiously wait on any new Trump tax plan information.  Volatility to the downside will be most likely be easier than the upside until tomorrow’s Fed announcement.  Size bias is long on light overnight volume into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 7:12 am

09/15/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

 Pre-market Commentary  Comments Off on 09/15/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet
Sep 152017
 

North Korea fired another missile over Japan yesterday after the UN increased sanctions against the isolated country just days ago.   In London, a train fire added to the bearishness, however as the US open approaches, the ES bulls have clawed their way back to retest yesterday’s settlement.  It’s a busy morning for economic data.  This morning’s key data includes Retail Sales  and Empire State @ 8:30am EST, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production @ 9:15am EST, and Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00am EST.  Upside volatility has dried up as the ES remains pinned under its all-time high.  However it’s Friday and if the ES is going higher, there’s a chance today, but I suspect the bulls will remain constrained until more of Trump’s tax plan is revealed.  Size bias is short into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:34 am