Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders and principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse risk modeling tools suited to larger, longer time horizon portfolios. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary information during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that ongoing research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, a dynamically adaptive, risk focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010, we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to other like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas as well as serve to cement the ones already implemented. That we can also give back to the trading brotherhood by way of helping like minded aspiring traders in the process makes our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what we share here, follow this link:

Methodology Introduction

 Posted by at 11:24 am

08/21/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Aug 212017
 

With no economic data and little in the way of corporate earnings, focus today will be on the geopolitical and whether or not planned joint US and South Korean military exercises causes new rhetoric from North Korea.  Millions of people in the US will be viewing a solar eclipse this afternoon, the first in more than 100 years to cross the entire US.  I’m writing this morning from the top of a mountain in north GA on the SC border in the path of a total solar eclipse.  It will be interesting to see if an eclipse affects the markets… 😊  Volatility is always a tough call for no news Mondays, but unless the bears continue last week’s down trend, I suspect volatility may dry up some today.  Size bias is long on some decent overnight volume.

 

 Posted by at 6:56 am

08/18/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Aug 182017
 

Yesterday’s Barcelona terrorist attack of a van slamming into a tourist area crowd, a thwarted explosive attack of 5 would be attackers killed by police south of Barcelona, and rumors that Trump’s chief economic advisor Cohn resigned over Trump’s position towards Nazis and white supremacists revealed through his Charlottesville responses have setup a global risk-off sentiment.  The White House quickly denied the Cohn rumors, but the Spain terrorist attack(s) were plenty to change trader expectations and bring out the bears.  ES price movement has cooled overnight and it’s possible the bulls have a technical base to recover some of yesterday’s down move.  Now that the ES is back below 2460, there’s room for both the bulls and bears to work and volatility should be higher than what we’ve been seeing before yesterday.   It’s a light economic calendar with UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation @ 10:00am EST.  Fed’s Kaplan speaks again today starting @ 10:15am EST.  The D.C. political circus remains as a fundamental backdrop to today’s trading.  Size bias is long into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:50 am