Welcome to The Discovery Trading Group

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Nov 292011
 

We are a group of professional traders and principals of a quantitative research firm which develops strategy and periodicity diverse risk modeling tools suited to larger, longer time horizon portfolios. Our own internal process involves using this webspace as a collective resource for sharing both discretionary information during intraday sessions and as a sort of virtual think tank for our ongoing quant research. A big part of that ongoing research has consistently shown that the ‘Holy Grail’ of the purely mechanical, single market intraday trading strategy that produces near linear returns without significant ongoing adaptation DOES NOT exist. As such we have found that for most traders pursuing single market intraday strategies, a dynamically adaptive, risk focused discretionary approach is likely to bear the most fruit. Ironic, given that rigid, purely mechanical systems are what the vast majority of retail traders (including us at one time) seem to be in relentless pursuit of. 

In the spring of 2010, we created a private, member only forum behind the blog devoted to our ongoing discussions related to discretionary analysis of market structure, price action and order flow to other like minded retail traders as a sort of experiment. Since we have always found the format in which we use this space privately to flesh out ideas to be so beneficial, we wondered if it might be even more fruitful to increase the sheer numbers of those participating in this process and with that, DTG as it exists today was born. By any measure, the experiment has been almost unfathomably successful for us in terms of it’s role in keeping us sharp in whatever discretionary or quantitative work we happen to be engaged in at the time. Sharing our experiences and interacting with the greater numbers continues to spark new ideas as well as serve to cement the ones already implemented. That we can also give back to the trading brotherhood by way of helping like minded aspiring traders in the process makes our little experiment a huge win on all fronts in our book. For information about the type of trading that is the foundation for what we share here, follow this link:

Methodology Introduction

 Posted by at 11:24 am

06/27/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 272017
 

There’s a central banking conference in London that includes 13 central banking speeches.  ECB’s Draghi was on yesterday’s and today’s schedule includes the Fed’s Harker @ 11:15am EST and Yellen @ 1:00pm EST.  On the US economic data calendar, we have HPI @ 9:00am EST, Richmond Manufacturing Index and more importantly, Consumer Confidence @ 10:00am EST.  The ES continues to consolidate and volatility continues to shrink.  Expect volatility to remain subdued until the ES can clear the 2428s or 2446s.  Size bias is short into the US session open.

 

 Posted by at 6:17 am

06/26/2017 ES Trade Plan Worksheet

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Jun 262017
 

Asian and European stock markets are up overnight and the ES is up with them.  News-flow was quiet overnight although gold had an interesting move, at 4am EST, it dropped over $20 in a minute with 20K orders executing.  Another rogue computer algo???  Not sure, after an initial hard bounce, gold is struggling to move higher.  For US economic data, we have Durable Goods @ 8:30am EST.  ECB’s Draghi is speaking @ 1:30pm EST.  There’s potential for an increase in volatility to the upside as the bulls break out of the 3-day consolidation.  Size bias is long into the 8:30am EST numbers.

 

 Posted by at 6:49 am